Intemperate Braves And Baseball Thoughts

It's "catch-all" time. There's a lot to talk about, so let's get to it:

• The trade for Dan Uggla, just as a reminder, breaks down like so:
  
  BRAVES GET:
  2B Dan Uggla: 674 PA, .287/.369/.508, 33 HR, 105 RBI, 130 OPS+, 3.7 WAR
  
  MARLINS GET:
  UT Omar Infante: 506 PA, .321/.359/.416, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 111 OPS+, 2.9 WAR
  LRP Mike Dunn: 19 IP, 15 H, 4/4 R/ER, 17 BB, 27 SO, 1.684 WHIP, 0.4 WAR
  
  It's the kind of trade that looks so good on one team's side: the Braves get a power bat they so desperately need in exchange for a utility player who had a career year and a rookie reliever who is wild, but has potential.
  
  Since the trade, Braves GM Frank Wren has tried to work on an extension with Uggla. On the 7th, the talks were said to be encouraging.
  
  

  "The early discussions we've had -- really introductory discussions -- have been very pleasant," Wren said. "I think there's a mutual desire for us to keep him long term and for him to stay long term. I think that has come through loud and clear -- both from Terry and from Dan. I think we've made it clear that's what we want to happen."

  Unfortunately, since that time, outfielder Carl Crawford agreed to a monstrous seven-year, $142 million contract with the Red Sox. Before that, Jayson Werth had signed a huge seven-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals. This might cause some fears that Uggla will demand an extension that's either out of the Braves' budget range or will cripple them down the road when Uggla's skills most likely decline.
  
  I'm really not sure that Uggla will be able to increase his demands that much. After all, the players that got those huge deals are outfielders with speed, stolen-base ability and decent defense. Uggla provides below average to horrible defense with above-average offense and no speed.


• At the Winter Meetings, Wren agreed with reliever George Sherrill to a $1.2 million, one-year deal, which includes $200,000 in incentives. The deal won't be official until Sherrill passes a physical. The former closer was downright awful for the Dodgers last season, posting a 1.926 WHIP in 31 1/3 innings. The year seems to be an aberration. If Sherrill makes the team, he'll be the third lefty in the pen, joining Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters.
  
  I do believe that Sherrill will be fine. At worst, he should be a great LOOGY, something that might appeal to new manager Fredi Gonzalez.


• Wren is also working to move Kenshin Kawakami. According to MLBTradeRumors, Rob Biertempfel tweets that the Pirates are close to a deal, but the sticking points are how much the Braves will pay of Kawakami's $6.67 million salary and whether or not left-hander Paul Maholm might be included.
  
  Maholm might be an interesting reclamation project if he's included, but it will be a shame to see Kawakami go. I've defended him a lot over the past couple of years and I do believe that he shouldn't have been stuck with the 1-10 record. In fact, that should be a test case on how wins and losses don't mean too much for some pitchers. If Kawakami does move on to Pittsburgh, all I can say is: Sachiare!

Playing Catch-Up With Box Score Links Whlie Braves Head To Florida (Plus A Commentary On The Miracle On Hank Aaron Drive)

NEW YORK 3, ATLANTA 2

ATLANTA 3, NEW YORK 2

ATLANTA 5, CINCINNATI 4

ATLANTA 10, CINCINNATI 9

ATLANTA 7, PITTSBURGH 0

ATLANTA 3, PITTSBURGH 2

PITTSBURGH 3, ATLANTA 2, 10 INN.

The Miracle On Hank Aaron Drive, of course, is the Braves' improbable ninth-inning comeback against the Cincinnati Reds last Thursday. I'd like to introduce a stat to some of you readers (any readers at all!) called Win Probability Added. This calculation attempts to track the probability of a player's actions contributing to his team's goal of victory.

At the start of the game, both teams essentially have an equal chance to win, so their WPAs are 50% each. Each play tilts the WPA in favor of the team it benefits.

By the end of the top of the second inning, the Reds had increased their WPA from 50% to 94% thanks to eight runs off of starter Tommy Hanson. The WPA didn't dip much in the Braves' favor throughout the entire game and by the bottom of the ninth inning, the Reds had a WPA of 100%, meaning they were essentially certain to win the game.

Note that it's not an absolute certainty; the statistic is most likely rounded off. But it was logical to believe that the Reds would be winning the game. But as long as there is one out for a team, they can conceivably do anything.

Mike Lincoln pitching for Reds
Play 1 - Troy Glaus singles to left (CIN -0%, 99%; ATL +0%, 1%) <- that's proof the numbers are rounded off.
Play 2 - Eric Hinske singles to right, Glaus to second (CIN -1%, 98%; ATL +1%, 2%)
Play 3 - Yunel Escobar singles to short, Cabrera drops ball, Glaus to third, Hinske to second (CIN -2%, 96%; ATL +2%, 4%)
Play 4 - Nate McLouth singles to right, Glaus scores, Hinske scores, Escobar to third (CIN -6%, 90%; ATL +6%, 10%)
Nick Masset pitching for Reds
Play 5 - David Ross walks, McLouth to second (CIN -8%, 82%; ATL +8%, 18%)
Play 6 - Martin Prado grounds to Miguel Cairo at third, Cairo can't get ball out of his glove, Escobar scores, McLouth to third, Ross to second, Prado to first (CIN -14%, 68%; ATL +14%, 32%)
Arthur Rhodes pitching for Reds
Play 7 - Jason Heyward strikes out swinging (CIN +12%, 80%; ATL -12%, 20%)
Francisco Cordero pitching for Reds
Play 8 - Brooks Conrad hits a grand slam to left (CIN -80%, 0%; ATL +80%, 100%)

We don't need the calculations to tell us that Conrad's slam was the most important play of the game, but when you see what it took to get to that point, it makes the stat interesting. The strikeout of Heyward was significant because it essentially negated the previous error (a -2% swing in two plays for the Reds) and set Cincinnati up for a game-ending double play.

The five most significant plays in the game, according to WPA, were:

1. Brooks Conrad's 9th inning grand slam (80%)
2. Joey Votto's 2nd inning grand slam (24%)
3. Miguel Cairo's 9th inning bases-loaded error (14%)
4. Jason Heyward's 9th inning strikeout (12%)
5. Miguel Cairo's 2nd inning bases-loaded single that gave the Reds their first run (10%)

More Scores and Links

BRAVES 8, PHILLIES 0

W - Tim Hudson (3-1)
L - J.A. Happ (0-1)
HR - Brian McCann 2 (4)
Martin PRado (2)

PIRATES 7, BRAVES 6, 10 INN.

W - Steven Jackson (1-0)
L - Manny Acosta (0-2)
HR - ATL - Nate McLouth (1)
Eric Hinske (1)
PIT - Steve Pearce (3)

Tim Hudson and Kenshin Kawakami had six shutout innings each in their respective games. The Braves bullpen was stalwart for the first game, but Jesse Chavez doomed the Braves' lead against the Pirates, giving up five runs.

Brian McCann drove in four runs with his two home runs and added a single against the Phillies. Starting against the Pirates, Eric Hinske homered and drew two walks. Martin Prado had two hits, including a homer, against the Phillies. Jason Heyward had three hits in the two games.

The Braves play the Tigers next with Derek Lowe going to the mound. The setup-closer duo of Saito and Wagner are scheduled to pitch, as well as veteran hopeful Scott Proctor.

Braves Train To Beat The Bucs

BRAVES 4, PIRATES 2

W - Jo-Jo Reyes (1-0)
L - Brian Burres (0-1)
S - Erik Cordier (1)
HR - Andy LaRoche (1)

Kenshin Kawakami continued the streak of Braves starters allowing no runs as Atlanta edged Pittsburgh 4-2.

THE GOOD: Kawakami and James Parr pitched two scoreless innings apiece. Brooks Conrad was the offensive star; he hit two doubles, drove two runners in, walked and stole a base. Brian McCann doubled and walked twice. Designated hitter Eric Hinske went 0-2, but he walked once and scored two runs.

THE BAD: Matt Diaz went 0-3 with two strikeouts and Jason Heyward had his first 0-fer of the spring.

UP NEXT: The Braves are playing the Washington Nationals right now.

EDIT: Moved the icons to the right of the post.