NEW YORK 3, ATLANTA 2
ATLANTA 3, NEW YORK 2
ATLANTA 5, CINCINNATI 4
ATLANTA 10, CINCINNATI 9
ATLANTA 7, PITTSBURGH 0
ATLANTA 3, PITTSBURGH 2
PITTSBURGH 3, ATLANTA 2, 10 INN.
The Miracle On Hank Aaron Drive, of course, is the Braves' improbable ninth-inning comeback against the Cincinnati Reds last Thursday. I'd like to introduce a stat to some of you readers (any readers at all!) called Win Probability Added. This calculation attempts to track the probability of a player's actions contributing to his team's goal of victory.
At the start of the game, both teams essentially have an equal chance to win, so their WPAs are 50% each. Each play tilts the WPA in favor of the team it benefits.
By the end of the top of the second inning, the Reds had increased their WPA from 50% to 94% thanks to eight runs off of starter Tommy Hanson. The WPA didn't dip much in the Braves' favor throughout the entire game and by the bottom of the ninth inning, the Reds had a WPA of 100%, meaning they were essentially certain to win the game.
Note that it's not an absolute certainty; the statistic is most likely rounded off. But it was logical to believe that the Reds would be winning the game. But as long as there is one out for a team, they can conceivably do anything.
Mike Lincoln pitching for Reds
Play 1 - Troy Glaus singles to left (CIN -0%, 99%; ATL +0%, 1%) <- that's proof the numbers are rounded off.
Play 2 - Eric Hinske singles to right, Glaus to second (CIN -1%, 98%; ATL +1%, 2%)
Play 3 - Yunel Escobar singles to short, Cabrera drops ball, Glaus to third, Hinske to second (CIN -2%, 96%; ATL +2%, 4%)
Play 4 - Nate McLouth singles to right, Glaus scores, Hinske scores, Escobar to third (CIN -6%, 90%; ATL +6%, 10%)
Nick Masset pitching for Reds
Play 5 - David Ross walks, McLouth to second (CIN -8%, 82%; ATL +8%, 18%)
Play 6 - Martin Prado grounds to Miguel Cairo at third, Cairo can't get ball out of his glove, Escobar scores, McLouth to third, Ross to second, Prado to first (CIN -14%, 68%; ATL +14%, 32%)
Arthur Rhodes pitching for Reds
Play 7 - Jason Heyward strikes out swinging (CIN +12%, 80%; ATL -12%, 20%)
Francisco Cordero pitching for Reds
Play 8 - Brooks Conrad hits a grand slam to left (CIN -80%, 0%; ATL +80%, 100%)
We don't need the calculations to tell us that Conrad's slam was the most important play of the game, but when you see what it took to get to that point, it makes the stat interesting. The strikeout of Heyward was significant because it essentially negated the previous error (a -2% swing in two plays for the Reds) and set Cincinnati up for a game-ending double play.
The five most significant plays in the game, according to WPA, were:
1. Brooks Conrad's 9th inning grand slam (80%)
2. Joey Votto's 2nd inning grand slam (24%)
3. Miguel Cairo's 9th inning bases-loaded error (14%)
4. Jason Heyward's 9th inning strikeout (12%)
5. Miguel Cairo's 2nd inning bases-loaded single that gave the Reds their first run (10%)
Showing posts with label new york mets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label new york mets. Show all posts
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Sunday, April 25, 2010
The Silliness Continues; Mets Take Rain-Shortened Game
NEW YORK 1, ATLANTA 0
Sunday's Braves-Mets game was a little like getting Whammied on Press Your Luck. Atlanta repeatedly failed to get runners in from second and third base, had an unearned run scored off of them and the skies opened up in the sixth inning, allowing the Mets to sweep the Braves by a 1-0 score.
It was almost like clockwork: the Braves had the bases loaded with two out in the first inning, men on first and second with two out in the second inning, men on first and second with one out in the third inning and men on first and second with one out in the fifth inning. A pop-up to short by Jason Heyward, a strikeout by Martin Prado, a double play grounder to short by Heyward, and a double play grounder to third by Troy Glaus ended each of those threats.
The Mets got their run off Braves starter Tommy Hanson in the first inning when Jose Reyes singled with two out, stole second and scored on an errant throw by Chipper Jones to first base in an attempt to get Jason Bay. It appeared that Chipper could have chosen to go after Reyes to tag him out, but he decided to throw to first anyway. The ball took a funny hop and bounced away from Glaus, allowing the run to score.
Hanson and Mets starter Mike Pelfrey wriggled out of that kind of trouble all game. Whlie striking out eight batters, Hanson was able to strand the other six baserunners he allowed via three singles and two walks. Pelfrey was able to strand every Braves runner, who got on with two doubles, three singles and five walks.
Odds 'N Ends: At least Tommy Hanson didn't have a quality start for the Braves to blow. As I think I mentioned yesterday, the Braves are 3-5 in games where the starter has a quality start.
Troy Glaus has seemed to become the bane of many Braves fans' existences. He leads the team with 10 hitless games where the player has started the game. Glaus has started 15 of the Braves' first 18 games. Calls for Eric Hinske to start more frequently have already begun, and probably won't be realized until about mid-May or so if Glaus continues to hit like he did coming back from shoulder surgery last year.
Sunday's Braves-Mets game was a little like getting Whammied on Press Your Luck. Atlanta repeatedly failed to get runners in from second and third base, had an unearned run scored off of them and the skies opened up in the sixth inning, allowing the Mets to sweep the Braves by a 1-0 score.
It was almost like clockwork: the Braves had the bases loaded with two out in the first inning, men on first and second with two out in the second inning, men on first and second with one out in the third inning and men on first and second with one out in the fifth inning. A pop-up to short by Jason Heyward, a strikeout by Martin Prado, a double play grounder to short by Heyward, and a double play grounder to third by Troy Glaus ended each of those threats.
The Mets got their run off Braves starter Tommy Hanson in the first inning when Jose Reyes singled with two out, stole second and scored on an errant throw by Chipper Jones to first base in an attempt to get Jason Bay. It appeared that Chipper could have chosen to go after Reyes to tag him out, but he decided to throw to first anyway. The ball took a funny hop and bounced away from Glaus, allowing the run to score.
Hanson and Mets starter Mike Pelfrey wriggled out of that kind of trouble all game. Whlie striking out eight batters, Hanson was able to strand the other six baserunners he allowed via three singles and two walks. Pelfrey was able to strand every Braves runner, who got on with two doubles, three singles and five walks.
Odds 'N Ends: At least Tommy Hanson didn't have a quality start for the Braves to blow. As I think I mentioned yesterday, the Braves are 3-5 in games where the starter has a quality start.
Troy Glaus has seemed to become the bane of many Braves fans' existences. He leads the team with 10 hitless games where the player has started the game. Glaus has started 15 of the Braves' first 18 games. Calls for Eric Hinske to start more frequently have already begun, and probably won't be realized until about mid-May or so if Glaus continues to hit like he did coming back from shoulder surgery last year.
More Woes And Weirdness Lead To Second Mets Win
NEW YORK 3, ATLANTA 1
Okay, now it's just getting silly.
Yunel Escobar made a key baserunning gaffe in the fifth inning with a scoreless tie and the Braves wasted another quality start from Jair Jurrjens with poor RISP batting, losing to the Mets 3-1.
The Braves left the bases loaded in the first inning and Chipper Jones, who turned 38 years old yesterday, appeared to hurt himself on his first swing. He tried to go back out in the third inning, but he couldn't extend himself and had to come out of the game. Martin Prado, who was getting the day off, took his place at third base the next inning. Chipper is day-to-day with a hip injury.
Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera struck out with the bases loaded to end the third. Atlanta left men on second with two out in the second and third innings.
With one out in the fifth, Escobar walked. Prado then hit a double in his first at-bat, sending Escobar to third. Troy Glaus then flied out to right. Seemingly forgetting the situation, Escobar failed to tag up at third, while Martin Prado did tag up at second and ran to third on Francoeur's catch. By the time Escobar realized what was going on, it was too late. Prado tried to get in a rundown, but he was quickly tagged out before Escobar could score.
However, the Braves did take the lead off of of starter Jon Niese in the sixth. Cabrera hit a one-out double, his second of the year, and scored on David Ross's single to give the Braves the lead. The Mets then brought in former Brave Manny Acosta, who shut down his old teammates through 1 2/3 innings.
In the bottom of the sixth, Jose Reyes took a two-out walk and stole second base. He went to third on David Ross's poor throw, which skipped into the outfield. Jason Bay then drove Reyes home with a double.
Rookie first baseman Ike David led off the seventh with a walk. Jeff Francoeur then hit a high fastball (which is pretty much one of the only things he can hit) to the 415 sign in right-center, scoring Davis with a triple. He was brought home by Henry Blanco's sacrifice fly. Jurrjens got pinch-hitter Frank Catalaotto to ground out, but a walk to leadoff hitter Angel Pagan ended his day. Eric O'Flaherty got Alex Cora to ground out to end the inning.
The Braves got another man in scoring position off reliever Pedro Feliciano with Jason Heyward beating out a double play relay and moving to second on a walk to David Ross. Brian McCann then lined a pitch to shortstop that was tailing on Reyes, but he made a great diving catch to save a run.
Kris Medlen held the Mets scoreless in the ninth and Francisco Rodriguez had a much-less shaky ninth inning as he put the Braves away 1-2-3 for his third save of the year.
Jurrjens went 6 2/3 innings and allowed just one earned run on four hits and four walks. Mets starter Jon Niese similarly allowed just one earned run, but on five hits and five wlks in 5 1/3 innings.
Odds 'N Ends: So far in the series at Citi Field, the Braves are 3-17 with RISP, with six walks and 3 RBIs. Those three hits are only singles.
Batting Average With Balls In Play is designed to show how often the defense turns a player's batted ball into an out. Sometimes, it shows that a player is very unlucky and other times it shows that a player is playing at an unsustainable level.
As of this post, the league average is .296. Out of the Braves' nine regular players, only three of them have a BABIP above the league average:
The last time the Mets swept a three-game series from the Braves in New York was August 19-21, 2008.
Okay, now it's just getting silly.
Yunel Escobar made a key baserunning gaffe in the fifth inning with a scoreless tie and the Braves wasted another quality start from Jair Jurrjens with poor RISP batting, losing to the Mets 3-1.
The Braves left the bases loaded in the first inning and Chipper Jones, who turned 38 years old yesterday, appeared to hurt himself on his first swing. He tried to go back out in the third inning, but he couldn't extend himself and had to come out of the game. Martin Prado, who was getting the day off, took his place at third base the next inning. Chipper is day-to-day with a hip injury.
Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera struck out with the bases loaded to end the third. Atlanta left men on second with two out in the second and third innings.
With one out in the fifth, Escobar walked. Prado then hit a double in his first at-bat, sending Escobar to third. Troy Glaus then flied out to right. Seemingly forgetting the situation, Escobar failed to tag up at third, while Martin Prado did tag up at second and ran to third on Francoeur's catch. By the time Escobar realized what was going on, it was too late. Prado tried to get in a rundown, but he was quickly tagged out before Escobar could score.
However, the Braves did take the lead off of of starter Jon Niese in the sixth. Cabrera hit a one-out double, his second of the year, and scored on David Ross's single to give the Braves the lead. The Mets then brought in former Brave Manny Acosta, who shut down his old teammates through 1 2/3 innings.
In the bottom of the sixth, Jose Reyes took a two-out walk and stole second base. He went to third on David Ross's poor throw, which skipped into the outfield. Jason Bay then drove Reyes home with a double.
Rookie first baseman Ike David led off the seventh with a walk. Jeff Francoeur then hit a high fastball (which is pretty much one of the only things he can hit) to the 415 sign in right-center, scoring Davis with a triple. He was brought home by Henry Blanco's sacrifice fly. Jurrjens got pinch-hitter Frank Catalaotto to ground out, but a walk to leadoff hitter Angel Pagan ended his day. Eric O'Flaherty got Alex Cora to ground out to end the inning.
The Braves got another man in scoring position off reliever Pedro Feliciano with Jason Heyward beating out a double play relay and moving to second on a walk to David Ross. Brian McCann then lined a pitch to shortstop that was tailing on Reyes, but he made a great diving catch to save a run.
Kris Medlen held the Mets scoreless in the ninth and Francisco Rodriguez had a much-less shaky ninth inning as he put the Braves away 1-2-3 for his third save of the year.
Jurrjens went 6 2/3 innings and allowed just one earned run on four hits and four walks. Mets starter Jon Niese similarly allowed just one earned run, but on five hits and five wlks in 5 1/3 innings.
Odds 'N Ends: So far in the series at Citi Field, the Braves are 3-17 with RISP, with six walks and 3 RBIs. Those three hits are only singles.
Batting Average With Balls In Play is designed to show how often the defense turns a player's batted ball into an out. Sometimes, it shows that a player is very unlucky and other times it shows that a player is playing at an unsustainable level.
As of this post, the league average is .296. Out of the Braves' nine regular players, only three of them have a BABIP above the league average:
- Martin Prado - .473 BABIP (.409 BA)
Jason Heyward - .344 BABIP (.254 BA)
Chipper Jones - .306 BABIP (.283 BA)
- Matt Diaz - .241 BABIP (.175 BA)
Brian McCann - .238 BABIP (.258 BA)
Yunel Escobar - .218 BABIP (.194 BA)
Troy Glaus - .211 BABIP (.175 BA)
Nate McLouth - .208 BABIP (.150 BA)
Melky Cabrera - .174 BABIP (.143 BA)
The last time the Mets swept a three-game series from the Braves in New York was August 19-21, 2008.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Near Misses, Strange Plays, Offensive Woes Add To Mets Win
NEW YORK 5, ATLANTA 2
Nate McLouth missing the game-tying home run by about 5-10 feet capped the weirdness of this game as the Mets defeated the Braves 5-2 in the opener of their three game series.
The game started normally, at first: the Braves struck first with Chipper Jones's RBI single off of starter John Maine. New York almost tied the game when former Brave Jeff Francoeur just missed a home run, hitting a ball off of what I would like to call the Black Monster in left field. Francoeur took third base on an ill-advised throw by Cabrera to second base. He then tried to score on Rod Barajas's grounder to third, but Chipper was able to throw him out at the plate.
Maine would leave the game in the middle of the fourth inning as he felt some muscle spasms in his left elbow. "Rookie" reliever Hisanori Takahashi, a 10-year veteran of the Yomiuri Tokyo Giants, went on to strike out seven of the twelve Braves that he faced.
In the meantime, the Mets tied the game with Ike Davis's first major league home run, a bomb to straight right off of Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami that knotted the score at one. New York went ahead in the bottom of the sixth on consecutive triples by Jose Reyes and Jason Bay. David Wright's sacrifice fly to the warning track in center field plated Bay and the Mets went up by two runs.
Kawakami finished the inning and left with his second quality start in three tries, with six hits and three earned runs allowed in six frames. The Braves finally chased Takahashi with a leadoff double by Omar Infante and a two-out single by Martin Prado.
The bottom of the seventh is where things got wacky. With one out and setup man Takashi Saito on the hill, Angel Pagan singled to left. He went to second on Luis Castillo's walk. Jose Reyes then hit a pop fly on the infield and the infield fly rule was called. Here is the rule and its points:
That's exactly what happened: Chipper Jones dropped the ball and picked it up as the Pagan and Castillo advanced a base. McCann then left home plate unguarded as he tried to get an explanation on why he didn't need to throw it to first. The ball was still live, however, because Saito didn't have it and he wasn't on the mound. So Pagan, with a heads-up notice from base coach Chip Hale, bolted for home plate and beat McCann's tag by a full second.
David Wright added on to the free run with a single, so it looked like the Mets would coast to a victory.
Not quite.
Pedro Feliciano and Jonny Venters provided a scoreless eighth inning, so it was up to Frankie Rodriguez to earn the save for the Mets. Melky Cabrera, who was 0-3 in the game, greeted him with a single to right. Infante, who had three hits up to that point, gave the Mets an out with a first-pitch fly ball to center.
However, Rodriguez then lost control against pinch-hitter Yunel Escobar, walking him. That brought up Nate McLouth, who had struck out three times already. He battled with Rodriguez a bit, and at one point absolutely crushed a high fastball that ended up 5-10 feet to the right of the foul pole. Rodriguez got him looking on a change-up on the outside corner then blew away Prado with an 0-2 breaking ball to end the game.
Nate McLouth missing the game-tying home run by about 5-10 feet capped the weirdness of this game as the Mets defeated the Braves 5-2 in the opener of their three game series.
The game started normally, at first: the Braves struck first with Chipper Jones's RBI single off of starter John Maine. New York almost tied the game when former Brave Jeff Francoeur just missed a home run, hitting a ball off of what I would like to call the Black Monster in left field. Francoeur took third base on an ill-advised throw by Cabrera to second base. He then tried to score on Rod Barajas's grounder to third, but Chipper was able to throw him out at the plate.
Maine would leave the game in the middle of the fourth inning as he felt some muscle spasms in his left elbow. "Rookie" reliever Hisanori Takahashi, a 10-year veteran of the Yomiuri Tokyo Giants, went on to strike out seven of the twelve Braves that he faced.
In the meantime, the Mets tied the game with Ike Davis's first major league home run, a bomb to straight right off of Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami that knotted the score at one. New York went ahead in the bottom of the sixth on consecutive triples by Jose Reyes and Jason Bay. David Wright's sacrifice fly to the warning track in center field plated Bay and the Mets went up by two runs.
Kawakami finished the inning and left with his second quality start in three tries, with six hits and three earned runs allowed in six frames. The Braves finally chased Takahashi with a leadoff double by Omar Infante and a two-out single by Martin Prado.
The bottom of the seventh is where things got wacky. With one out and setup man Takashi Saito on the hill, Angel Pagan singled to left. He went to second on Luis Castillo's walk. Jose Reyes then hit a pop fly on the infield and the infield fly rule was called. Here is the rule and its points:
2.00: An INFIELD FLY is a fair fly ball (not including a line drive nor an attempted bunt) which can be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort, when first and second, or first, second and third bases are occupied, before two are out. The pitcher, catcher and any outfielder who stations himself in the infield on the play shall be considered infielders for the purpose of this rule.This rule was made to prevent fielders from intentionally dropping balls to start double or even triple plays. Another key to this rule is that when the ball is dropped, it's still a live ball; any base is fair game if unguarded.
6.05(e): A batter is out when An Infield Fly is declared.
That's exactly what happened: Chipper Jones dropped the ball and picked it up as the Pagan and Castillo advanced a base. McCann then left home plate unguarded as he tried to get an explanation on why he didn't need to throw it to first. The ball was still live, however, because Saito didn't have it and he wasn't on the mound. So Pagan, with a heads-up notice from base coach Chip Hale, bolted for home plate and beat McCann's tag by a full second.
David Wright added on to the free run with a single, so it looked like the Mets would coast to a victory.
Not quite.
Pedro Feliciano and Jonny Venters provided a scoreless eighth inning, so it was up to Frankie Rodriguez to earn the save for the Mets. Melky Cabrera, who was 0-3 in the game, greeted him with a single to right. Infante, who had three hits up to that point, gave the Mets an out with a first-pitch fly ball to center.
However, Rodriguez then lost control against pinch-hitter Yunel Escobar, walking him. That brought up Nate McLouth, who had struck out three times already. He battled with Rodriguez a bit, and at one point absolutely crushed a high fastball that ended up 5-10 feet to the right of the foul pole. Rodriguez got him looking on a change-up on the outside corner then blew away Prado with an 0-2 breaking ball to end the game.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Braves Defeat Mets Despite Two Shaky Innings
BRAVES 7, METS 6, 10 INN.W - Craig Kimbrel (1-0)
L - Eric Niesen (0-1)
HR - Chris Carter (3)
After some early offense and trading goose eggs, the Braves prevailed 7-6 in ten innings over the Mets.
THE GOOD: Melky Cabrera and Chipper Jones drove in two runs each while Martin Prado went 2-2 and scored two runs. Pinch-hitter Jesus Sucre provided the game-winning single in the tenth inning. He hit a home run, but he was credited with a single because he only touched first base.
Kris Medlen pitched three shutout innings after the departure of Derek Lowe. Five Braves relievers each pitched an inning of scoreless ball, including closer prospect Craig Kimbrel, who got the win.
THE BAD: Derek Lowe lasted just an inning because of a toe blister and gave up three runs on five hits, including a two-run homer to Chris Carter. Takashi Saito allowed three runs on three hits, two of them for extra bases, in just his second relief inning in the spring.
Nate McLouth walked and scored a run, but he again went 0-3. His spring average is now down to .063. Jason Heyward sat out the game to rest his back, which he tweaked running into the wall in yesterday's game.
UP NEXT: Heyward is expected to play against the Yankees in Tampa, Florida. Jair Jurrjens is expected to make his spring debut tomorrow.
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Braves Win First Spring Game (Whoopee)
BRAVES 9, METS 5W - Josh Venters (1-0)
L - Josh Stinson (0-1)
HR - Brandon Hicks (1)
Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus had their first action of the spring as the Braves pulled out a late win by a score of 9-5.
THE GOOD: Jason Heyward had another strong day, going 1-2 with a double, RBI, walk and a run scored. Brandon Hicks hit the Braves' first homer of the spring and Brent Clevlen, a minor free agent signing, had a two-hit game. Tim Hudson tossed two scoreless innings while Peter Moylan and Eric O'Flaherty tossed scoreless frames. 2009 draft pick Mike Minor tossed a perfect inning as well.
THE BAD: Mariano Gomez allowed three hits and one run and Stephen Marek, the prospect obtained with Casey Kotchman in the second Mark Teixeira trade, coughed up three runs on four hits and two walks. Glaus went hitless in his spring debut.
UP NEXT: The Braves host the Pirates at Disney's Wide World of Sports.
EDIT: Moved the icons to the right of the post.
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Spring Opener Not Good For All Involved; Mets Drop Braves
W - Bobby Livingston (1-0)
L - Jesse Chavez (0-1)
S - Ryota Igarashi (1)
HR - Russ Adams (1)
Both teams opened up their Grapefruit League season on a soggy day. The Mets and Braves held off a few of their regular starters for the game. The Mets ended up prevailing 4-2.
THE GOOD: Phenom Jason Heyward had a strong opening game with a single and two walks. He also stole third base. Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen had two scoreless innings apiece. Each hurler allowed one hit; Hanson struck out three batters and Medlen punched out one.
THE BAD: Jesse Chavez coughed up three runs to open up his spring and Nate McLouth and Yunel Escobar had 0-3 days at the plate.
NEXT UP:The Braves play the Mets again on Wednesday.
EDIT: Moved icons to the right of the post.
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