Intemperate Braves And Baseball Thoughts

It's "catch-all" time. There's a lot to talk about, so let's get to it:

• The trade for Dan Uggla, just as a reminder, breaks down like so:
  
  BRAVES GET:
  2B Dan Uggla: 674 PA, .287/.369/.508, 33 HR, 105 RBI, 130 OPS+, 3.7 WAR
  
  MARLINS GET:
  UT Omar Infante: 506 PA, .321/.359/.416, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 111 OPS+, 2.9 WAR
  LRP Mike Dunn: 19 IP, 15 H, 4/4 R/ER, 17 BB, 27 SO, 1.684 WHIP, 0.4 WAR
  
  It's the kind of trade that looks so good on one team's side: the Braves get a power bat they so desperately need in exchange for a utility player who had a career year and a rookie reliever who is wild, but has potential.
  
  Since the trade, Braves GM Frank Wren has tried to work on an extension with Uggla. On the 7th, the talks were said to be encouraging.
  
  

  "The early discussions we've had -- really introductory discussions -- have been very pleasant," Wren said. "I think there's a mutual desire for us to keep him long term and for him to stay long term. I think that has come through loud and clear -- both from Terry and from Dan. I think we've made it clear that's what we want to happen."

  Unfortunately, since that time, outfielder Carl Crawford agreed to a monstrous seven-year, $142 million contract with the Red Sox. Before that, Jayson Werth had signed a huge seven-year, $126 million deal with the Nationals. This might cause some fears that Uggla will demand an extension that's either out of the Braves' budget range or will cripple them down the road when Uggla's skills most likely decline.
  
  I'm really not sure that Uggla will be able to increase his demands that much. After all, the players that got those huge deals are outfielders with speed, stolen-base ability and decent defense. Uggla provides below average to horrible defense with above-average offense and no speed.


• At the Winter Meetings, Wren agreed with reliever George Sherrill to a $1.2 million, one-year deal, which includes $200,000 in incentives. The deal won't be official until Sherrill passes a physical. The former closer was downright awful for the Dodgers last season, posting a 1.926 WHIP in 31 1/3 innings. The year seems to be an aberration. If Sherrill makes the team, he'll be the third lefty in the pen, joining Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters.
  
  I do believe that Sherrill will be fine. At worst, he should be a great LOOGY, something that might appeal to new manager Fredi Gonzalez.


• Wren is also working to move Kenshin Kawakami. According to MLBTradeRumors, Rob Biertempfel tweets that the Pirates are close to a deal, but the sticking points are how much the Braves will pay of Kawakami's $6.67 million salary and whether or not left-hander Paul Maholm might be included.
  
  Maholm might be an interesting reclamation project if he's included, but it will be a shame to see Kawakami go. I've defended him a lot over the past couple of years and I do believe that he shouldn't have been stuck with the 1-10 record. In fact, that should be a test case on how wins and losses don't mean too much for some pitchers. If Kawakami does move on to Pittsburgh, all I can say is: Sachiare!

Schultz Gets It Right, But How He Defends It Is Lacking

(First, a little background...)

Kenshin Kawakami's season has taken another ghastly turn.

In two-plus innings Sunday, the Braves' fifth starter gave up three runs on six singles to the Kansas City Royals and left only to see the runners he left on score. With a 5-4 deficit, the Japanese hurler was faced with the prospect of starting the season with ten losses and nary a single win. Fortunately for Kenshin, the Braves pulled out an 8-5 victory over Kansas City, leaving him where he was at the start of the day.

With Braves starter Jair Jurrjens nearing his return from a hamstring injury, the question for fans and pundits is who will be sent to the bullpen to make room for Jurrjens in the rotation? Many, if not all, agree that spot starter Kris Medlen should stay in the rotation and Kawakami should be banished to the pen. AJC sportswriter Jeff Schultz agrees, but how he defends the move is questionable arguing at best.

It's time for the Braves to end the Kawakami experiment

It all starts with the headline. The Braves didn't sign Kawakami just to see if Japanese hurlers succeed in the majors; they thought they had something with him. Kenshin means a lot more than being a Braves starter for a simple fact: he is the first Japanese player to play for them in the major leagues. That alone helped them bring solid set-up man Takashi Saito to Atlanta (1-2, 2.92 ERA, 141 ERA+, 24 2/3 IP, 34 K, .973 WHIP before his injury). It seems that it's easy to lose sight of this fact.

So I stood by Bobby Cox Sunday when he said he didn’t want to talk about any future decisions regarding Kenshin Kawakami, though he added, “He’ll make his next start.” Why? By default. Jair Jurrjens has at least another week of rehab left.

Excellent point to start. If Cox had come out and said that Kawakami was going to be demoted to the bullpen before he made his next start, Kenshin would have that hanging over his head while he's trying to hold off a Tigers team that's in contention in the AL Central.

And then I stood by Kenshin Kawakami as he deflected no criticism (a commendable character trait of his) and said of possibly losing his starting job: “I haven’t thought about that much. But being a starter, I’m not really doing my job right now, so I’m ready for anything that is coming.”

Again, no complaints. Kawakami readily accepts blame for things that go wrong, which is a trait that stems from Japan's corporate business-like culture. It's an honorable trait, but Kawakami's taking blame for his performance doesn't totally shield him from criticism, much like what's next:

Kawakami is baseball’s only $23 million fifth starter.

I'm not sure why Schultz dragged Kawakami's contract into this debate. It just shows the Braves tied up a few bucks into their rotation. Derek Lowe has a $60 million, four-year contract that was criticized from the start. Tim Hudson signed a three-year extension at $9 million per year just a couple of months after returning off Tommy John surgery which was questioned by some at the time. Only three starters (Tommy Hanson, Jurrjens and Medlen) are making less than $1 million this season.

If anything, Schultz should be blasting Lowe with a statement like that; there were times last year and now that Lowe was pitching worse than Kawakami.

He also has the distinction of being 0-9 for a first-place team.

That's not a particularly damning statement, as there are poor starters on first-place teams in general. The first-place Cardinals have had to deal with Kyle Lohse underperforming (9 GS, 1-4, 5.89 ERA, 1.711 WHIP), Texas has to attempt to contend with the inconsistencies of Rich Harden (13 GS, 3-3, 5.68 ERA, 1.677 WHIP) and Scott Feldman (14 GS, 5-6, 5.16 ERA, 1.566 WHIP), and there is Javier Vazquez's second go-round with the Yankees which included a demotion to the bullpen for a brief time (13 G, 6-6, 5.01 ERA, 1.286 WHIP).

Of course, when a pitcher is the only Braves pitcher in history to start the season with nine losses and no wins, he can't get away with much.

Only three other pitchers in the majors have lost as many games: Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez (3-10), Cleveland’s David Huff (2-9) and former Brave, now of Pittsburgh, Charlie Morton (1-9).

The Indians are in last place. The Pirates are in last place. The Astros are one-half game ahead of the Pirates. See where I’m going with this?

Unless you're implying that first-place teams aren't "supposed" to trot out players with nine or ten losses and few wins, I don't see where you're going with that statement. We can be better served by comparing all these pitchers' seasons in more detail:

Rodriguez - 14 GS - 6 QS, 3-10 (4-10 team)
75 1/3 IP
95 H
59 R, 51 ER (8)
34 BB
52 SO
6.09 ERA
1.712 WHIP
11.3 H/9
4.1 BB/9
6.2 SO/9
3.10 R/27

Huff - 13 GS - 4 QS, 2-9 (3-10 team)
70 IP
88 H
53 R, 47 ER (6)
30 BB
34 SO
6.04 ERA
1.686 WHIP
11.3 H/9
3.9 BB/9
4.4 SO/9
3.83 R/27

Morton - 10 GS - 4 QS, 1-9 (1-9 team)
43 1/3 IP
66 H
52 R, 45 ER (7)
16 BB
35 SO
9.35 ERA
1.892 WHIP
13.7 H/9
3.3 BB/9
7.3 SO/9
1.72 R/27

Kawakami - 14 GS - 6 QS, 0-9 (4-10 team)
75 1/3 IP
85 H
47 R, 40 ER (7)
25 BB
51 SO
4.78 ERA
1.460 WHIP
10.2 H/9
3.0 BB/9
6.1 SO/9
3.51 R/27

Now we see some more similarities: a high amount of hits, walks and unearned runs allowed, relatively few strikeouts, high WHIPs and ERAs, poor quality start ratios and extremely low run support. Kawakami is the best of these pitchers and has the highest amount of no-decisions because the Braves are a better team than the Astros, Pirates or Indians. However, that doesn't do much to salvage Kawakami's record.

It would be best to take this route, but Schultz tries to go it a different way:

Yes, Kawakami has received little run support in some starts but that hasn’t really been the case of late. He was handed a 4-0 lead Sunday against Kansas City and promptly doused it with gasoline and lit a match to it. He also committed his third error in his last two starts.

There's no question that start was the worst of Kawakami's major league career. Errors aren't necessarily bad if you can make pitches and limit the damage. At this point, it appears that Kawakami isn't very capable of doing that. That being said...

Further — and this is where all of those, “Oh, stop picking on him, meanie; don’t you know the Braves don’t score for him?” arguments fall apart — Kawakami’s ERA is 4.78.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. There is a glaring counter-example for that statement: Derek Lowe. Lowe's ERA is 4.77, but he's getting 5.79 runs per 27 outs of support. Lowe owes his 9-5 record (10-5 team) partly to that. If Kawakami had Lowe's run support, there's no doubt in my mind he'd have a similar record or one close to .500. The poor run support is a significant culprit.

Once again, because some of his defenders ignore this number: 4.78. That is the worst ERA on the staff among active pitchers, save reliever Jesse Chavez (7.33), who doesn’t really count.

I haven't ignored it, but you seem to be ignoring Lowe, whose ERA is .01 higher than Kawakami's, and he doesn't get this kind of criticism because he has the most wins on the staff combined with a high run support.

Kawakami also is yielding the most hits per nine innings (10.2), has allowed the most home runs (nine) and, it follows, the highest slugging percentage (.478).

See, things like this are where you should have been going all along! Lets compare Derek's stats to Kenshin's and see how they match up:

Lowe - 15 GS - 7 QS, 9-5 (10-5 team)
88 2/3 IP
89 H
49 R, 47 ER
37 BB
51 SO
4.77 ERA
1.421 WHIP
5.79 R/27
9.0 H/9
3.8 BB/9
5.2 SO/9
5.79 R/27

Lowe has a similar resume to Kawakami and has given up just two less home runs (seven), but he has a 9-5 record. Why? Run support, pure and simple.

Stop the madness.

Is it just me or does that statement not have enough feeling to it. It needs an exclamation point. Or two. Like this: Stop the madness!!

If Jurrjens is cleared following his next start at Gwinnett, this should be an easy decision for Cox: Keep Kris Medlen (3-0, 3.67 as a starter) in the rotation and put Kawakami in the bullpen.

Yes, exactly. Let's look at Medlen's starting record too:

Medlen - 8 GS - 5 QS
3-0 (7-1 team)
49 IP
49 H
22 R, 20 ER (2)
9 BB
32 SO
3.67 ERA
1.184 WHIP
9.0 H/9
1.7 BB/9
5.9 SO/9
4.89 R/27

Very impressive so far. I think Kris has the talent to keep that kind of a record going.

Granted, middle relief is not what general manager Frank Wren projected when he gave Kawakami a contract for over $7 million per year.

I don't think it's what anyone thought would happen. I thought that Kawakami would at least be a fourth starter when he came over here to Major League Baseball. I figured he'd have his struggles, and he did have them last year. But this year is just a whole 'nother league in struggling. It's rather unfortunate and kind of sad. You have to feel bad for the guy, even if you're trying to toss him out with the bathwater.

But Kawakami has shown an ability to strike people out. So maybe there’s something to salvage from this.

Think of it as salvaging the rear bumper after a front-end collision.

A car wreck of a season. Not quite a train wreck, but I suppose it'll suffice.

I can pretty much guess which way sentiment is going on this. I’ve got a poll up also. Let me hear ya.

You heard me here, Jeff!

The poll's choices are as follows:

What should the Braves do with Kenshin Kawakami?

• Keep him as a starter
• Put him in the bullpen
• Sit him on the curb with a sign that reads "Owner will pay $7 million for you to haul away"

At 12:08 AM, EST on June 22nd, I voted "Put him in the bullpen".

60% (1,686) who voted said put him in the bullpen. 36% (1,020) said release him and eat the cost. 4% (92) said to keep him as a starter.

I don't agree with eating Kawakami's money and releasing him. With the way the money is being doled out in Atlanta, you can't just throw it away to a guy who isn't playing for you anymore; you have to get something out of him. Kawakami's better than this and he knows it. He can probably regroup in the bullpen and salvage something out of this year.

It is the correct move to put Kawakami in the bullpen because of his struggles. However, we can blame lack of run support as a reason for his struggles, despite the argument that Jeff Schultz provides.

Kawakami Hopes Not To Get Snakebit Again

Haadorakku is a Japanese word which means precisely what it sounds like: hard luck. Braves pitcher Kenshin Kawakami has had more than enough of that this season.

Expected to improve going into his second season as a major league pitcher, Kawakami has seemed to regress instead, sporting an 0-8 record with a 4.91 ERA (37 runs, 34 earned) and 1.380 WHIP in 62 1/3 innings pitched.

Those statistics, however, don't tell the whole story. An amount of factors caused the Braves' first Japanese pitcher become the first hurler to sport a winless, eight-loss record in 85 years. The Braves pitcher who first did it, spot starter Wilfred "Rosy" Ryan, didn't lose his eighth game until August.

The first, and probably most important factor, is run support. Kawakami's support out of the current Braves' starters is the worst on the team:

Hudson - 12 GS, 6.08 R/27 (6-1)
Lowe - 13 GS, 5.95 R/27 (8-5)
Hanson - 12 GS, 5.72 R/27 (6-3)
Medlen - 6 GS, 4.42 R/27 (3-1)
Kawakami - 11 GS, 3.25 R/27 (0-8)

In parentheses are their won-loss records.

It's not a coincidence that Derek Lowe has eight victories despite having similar statistics to Kawakami.

Lowe - 13 GS, 5.04 ERA, 75 IP, 77 H, 44 R, 42 ER, 32 BB, 44 SO, 80 ERA+, 1.453 WHIP
Kawakami - 11 GS, 4.91 ERA, 62 IP, 68 H, 37 R, 34 ER, 18 BB, 36 SO, 82 ERA+, 1.380 WHIP

Lowe has had four cheap wins (win with four or more earned runs allowed) and one tough loss (loss with quality start). Kawakami has had no cheap wins (naturally) and three tough losses. The Braves are 8-5 when Lowe starts and 3-8 when Kawakami starts.

The hardest Kawakami non-win to take was a start against Cincinnati. Kawakami shut out the Reds on five hits and one walk in six innings despite pitching with a blister and a strained back. However, Takashi Saito coughed up three runs in the eighth and Billy Wagner blew his second save of the year by giving up a pinch-hit solo homer to rookie Chris Heisey. The Braves eventually won in the bottom of the inning.

Kawakami's eighth loss charged to him really wasn't his fault. He gave up two runs in each of the first two innings against the Dodgers, but the Braves tied up the game at four in the top of the seventh, breaking through against Clayton Kershaw and Hong-Chih Kuo. In the bottom of the inning, Kawakami struck out leadoff hitter Matt Kemp. Then, Andre Ethier hit a ground-rule double. After intentionally walking Manny Ramirez, Kawakami was relieved by left-hander Eric O'Flaherty. Eric's first pitch was hit by James Loney for an RBI single. The Dodgers took the game by the 5-4 score from that single. Because it was Kawakami's runner that scored from second base, he was charged with the run and the loss that followed.

Now, entering his twelfth start against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Kawakami will hope to avoid uncharted territory in Braves history by getting his first win of the season.

The Freak and Kung Fu Panda Vault Giants Ahead of Braves

SAN FRANCISCO 6, ATLANTA 3

Atlanta was cruising along with good pitching and the lead, and then something bad happens to make them lose the lead and eventually, the game. The same script played out just like Friday's game, except the teams didn't need extra innings to finish the Giants' 6-3 victory.

In the first inning, Brian McCann got the jump on Tim Lincecum with a two-run, two-out homer into the stands in right field. Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami, who earned the nickname "Dragon Slayer" for pitching his best when opposing other teams' aces, made that stand up as he retired the first eleven batters he faced. Pablo Sandoval broke that streak with a triple and scored on Aubrey Huff's single, which beat Atlanta's unusual right infield shift on him.

The Braves couldn't get anything else going against Lincecum in the meantime. After the top of the sixth, they had only mustered four hits since the home run and struck out six times (seven overall). In the bottom of the sixth, the Giants grounded out twice to start the frame. Sandoval then singled and Huff walked to move him to second. Mark DeRosa then singled to right field. Jason Heyward attempted to throw out Sandoval at the plate, but his throw was up the third base line and McCann couldn't block it. The ball struck Sandoval and rolled into foul territory behind the plate. The confusion allowed Huff to come around and score the go-ahead run. Kawkami finished the inning and left the game in the seventh for a pinch-hitter. His day included just one walk and five hits allowed in six innings.

Lincecum struck out the side after getting the 3-2 lead to finish his day with seven innings pitched and ten strikeouts. Kris Medlen answerd in the bottom of the inning by striking out two of the three men he faced.

The Braves were held off the scoreboard in the eighth by set-up man Jeremy Affeldt. Aaron Rowand led off the Giants' half with a single was erased on a fielder's choice by Escobar. Sandoval then smacked Medlen's first offering into the right field seats to increase the Giants' lead to three.

With two out, Huff hit a fly ball to left field. The wind messed with it enough that Diaz had the ball go off his glove. Huff reached third on the error, probably assisted by Diaz dropping the ball as he was trying to pick it up. Bengie Molina drove Huff home with a single.

Heyward somewhat made up for his error with a similar home run to yesterday; an opposite-field shot to left. That closed the gap to 6-3, and that's how the game ended after Matt Diaz struck out.

My Commentary: The Braves blew another quality start, which makes them 1-2 in that department after six games. Atlanta was 64-35 in quality starts last year. It's always frustrating when a quality start is blown, but two in one series almost makes it unbearable.

Heyward now leads the Braves in the young season with three home runs. He may lead the league in strikeouts (9), but the production has been there for the first week.

In an illustrative note about small sample sizes, Jeff Francoeur has a bigger OPS+ (299) in the first week than all the Braves outfielders' OPS+es added together (278):

Melky Cabrera - 11
Matt Diaz - 24
Jason Heyward - 180
Nate McLouth - 63

The problem is likely Diaz and McLouth getting limited action and Cabrera being exposed as Gregor Blanco with power.

Kawakami Shouritoushu!: Kenshin Wins In Major League Debut

ATLANTA 5, WASHINGTON 3

Kenshin Kawakami had a successful major league debut and the Atlanta Braves came from behind to beat the Washington Nationals 5-3.

The Braves' first Japanese player in the major leagues, Kawakami logged six innings, allowing three runs on an RBI single by Nick Johnson in the first and a two-run homer by Ryan Zimmerman in the third. He didn't allow any hits after the third inning and he struck out eight Washington batters. He also walked four batters.

Kelly Johnson led off the bottom of the third with a solo shot to center off Nationals starter John Lannan to cut the gap to 3-1. In the bottom of the fourth, Matt Diaz singled, then Casey Kotchman grounded into a fielder's choice to erase Diaz. Jordan Schafer doubled into the right field corner to move Kotchman to third. After Kawakami grounded out to short, Kelly Johnson rapped a single to center and stretched it into a double when Willie Harris didn't cover second base. Both Kotchman and Schafer scored on the play.

Yunel Escobar hit a hard grounder that Harris knocked down, but couldn't make any play, and then Chipper Jones knocked in Johnson with a single to give the Braves the lead.

Kawakami kept the lead through the sixth inning, retiring the last eight Washington batters he faced. Peter Moylan entered in the seventh inning and struck out the side, lowering his ERA from infinity to 45.00. Rafael Soriano allowed a leadoff double to Cristian Guzman, but he then struck out Ryan Zimmerman. Adam Dunn then walked, but Nick Johnson hit into a 4-6-3 double play to end the inning.

The Braves added an insurance run in the eighth with a two-out single by Yunel Escobar. Yunel also had two walks in the game. Jordan Schafer had two doubles and a single.

Mike Gonzalez came on in the ninth for the save. He got Austin Kearns to ground out to short and Jesus Flores to strike out swinging. Josh Willingham pinch-hit for Harris and he was rung up with a check swing to end the game.

W - Kenshin Kawakami (1-0)
L - John Lannan (0-2)
S - Mike Gonzalez (1)
HR - WAS - Ryan Zimmerman (1)
ATL - Kelly Johnson (2)

THREE STARS

GOLD
2B Kelly Johnson, Atlanta - 3-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI

SILVER
P Kenshin Kawakami, Atlanta - 6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 8 SO

BRONZE
CF Jordan Schafer, Atlanta - 3-4, 2 2B, 2 R

AP Photo by John Amis

EDIT: Changed boxscore link to Baseball-Reference.com